Scenario-based Strategy

 

Scenario-based strategy

City executives need to have a planning time horizon of 20–25 years to anticipate discontinuities in the contextual environment. This relatively long time horizon reflects the time span of discretion, the length of time that it takes for a decision at director level to be seen as correct. A shorter planning time horizon will result in decisions that do not fit with the organisational context 25 years hence. Scenario-based strategy was developed by its founders to do precisely that – enable thinking that is comprehensive and which provides insights into the future that are novel compared to commonly held assumptions about the future. Modelling using the SD methodology is applied to develop a causal loop diagram which reflects the critical causal relationships within specific dynamics. SD models complement scenarios and assist in forming an idea of the future organisational context. SD modelling can support decision makers to penetrate this planning time horizon. A systemic study can also eliminate unintended consequences following policy decisions. Stress-testing strategic priorities for robustness across well-researched scenarios will remove most unintended consequences of the risks that surface during the stress-testing process, aka wind-tunnelling.

Scenario-based strategy tests strategy across the scenarios for robust-ness beforecommitting resources to the plans. Evidence-based choices are preferred as they prevent plans and strategies which are not proven, based on outcomes, from being put in place.

The unfortunate truth is that policymakers formulate policy based on their intentions while citizens judge a policy by the results it delivers in their day-to-day lives. The foundation of policy and politics has to be economics. Unless policy is based on evidence-based economic sense, it should not be adopted.

Collaborating and building common purpose provides an anchor and true north for policy implementation. The national shared vision is usually contained in the agreed national or federal constitution, and for cities and towns the law can be found in the legislation guiding city and town government.

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Organisation Capability Assessment

                            

                        

                        
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LEADERSHIP
We take a stand for compliance with the Constitution(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We take a stand for compliance with the municipal mandate(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We take a stand for accountability and the rule of law(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We take a stand for good governance practice(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
Regular goal setting and review forms the basis for team and individual accountability in the performance management system (PMS)(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We take a stand for elimination of all wastage(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We take a stand for continuous improvement of quality and value-for-money services(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
A regular strategic conversation among people with links to the whole organisation determines robust strategic priorities and goals, and monitors results(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
Organisational infrastructure has been built to determine strategy in a strategic conversation among leadership and to engage the whole organisation in a strategy, leadership and engagement (SLE) forum(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
Organisational trust is built through competence, openness and honesty, concerns for employees/stakeholders, reliability, job satisfaction and team and individual effectiveness(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We motivate people by fostering a sense of achievement, recognition, and the work itself, including regular feedback, advancement on merit and personal growth of competencies(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
Intact team competence profile identifies strengths and challenges(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
Individual personal development planning (PDP) forms part of the performance contract(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
SCENARIO-BASED STRATEGY
We collaborate and engage for building common purpose(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We experience strategic planning as a learning process uses scenario-based strategy processes(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We stress-test options and strategic priorities for robustness(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We make evidence-based policy choices only(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We conduct regular strategy reviews based on outcomes-focused strategic priorities(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
SERVICE DELIVERY
We regularly set goals and review performance of intact teams and individuals, for effective service delivery and alignment of performance with strategy(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We build shared commitment and sound evidence-based delivery models(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We plan, prioritise and resource delivery and include alternate delivery models(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We use competitive bidding among subcontractors for service delivery contracts(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
Sustainable community investment programmes (SCIP) include human rights-based programmes, for example youth engagement in service delivery(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We use joint ventures and partnerships for quality service delivery(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
Back-to-basics and value-for-money services to citizens(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We embed organisational goal setting and review routines for ensuring a service delivery culture(Required)

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			

			

					
					
			
We take a stand for compliance with the Constitution(Required)